The Wisdom Of Football Crowds – part 2
Leyton Orient confirmed their status in League 1 on Saturday with a less-than-inspiring capitulation to a Nottingham Forest side they had previously embarrassed by the same 3-1 scoreline on their own ground, sending Forest’s season into a mini-crisis from which it has struggled to recover. Results however went the Os way, with Chesterfield beating Bradford City, condemning both teams to a season in the league’s basement. So what does this mean for my 2006-7 prediction market?
Apparently, last week’s 2-0 win over Bradford was enough to convince the market that safety was assured and prices changed accordingly. This was a good demonstration of the system’s capabilities, but I don’t think I got a big enough range of opinion, so I will be promoting next season’s prediction market more heavily on message boards and the like in an effort to get more participation.
The biggest thrill was confirming that my partner was wrong. At the beginning of the 2005-6 season she predicted Orient would be promoted, but would immediately return to League 2. I always believed we could stay up, although I wasn’t always so sure we would. .!